Indeed, the Republicans do have a guaranteed 41 votes in the Senate and as Todd noted at that link this morning, David Gergen is already merrily spinning the notion that this means Obama should take heed that Americans want him to lean towards the center. Which is pundit-speak for moving right. The implication is that the pursuit of legitimacy in a representative government practically demands that Obama should bow to the center right will of the people in the matter.

The, um, ... Senate results should tell him this?

According to the 2007 census estimates, the State of Wyoming, with its two Republican Senators, has less population than the District of Columbia, with no Senator. Indeed, there are 11 states with less total population than Philadelphia's last estimated 1.4 million, and they get two Senators each. And for real representation in the Senate you should also plainly not live in California, where that nearly twelve percent of the nation's total population winds up with one fiftieth of the nation's Senate seats.

If you go through and add it up, leaving aside Minnesota's undecided 1.7 percent for now, only about 49.8 percent of the nearly 306 million people in the United States live in a state where there's even one Republican Senator. Only 24.4 percent live in a state where both seats are held by Republicans.

Taken from the other direction, 48.5 percent of the country's citizenry lives in states where the electorate wants to see only Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents run things in the Senate. Less than a quarter support having only Republicans do so. That's a 2:1 ratio of Democrat:Republican in terms of straightforward statewide mandates for one party or the other in terms of population represented. That leaves the potential public constituency for some sort of centrist (though it could as easily be center left as right, considering the presidential map and the makeup of the House) management of the Senate at slightly over a quarter.

To review, that's about a 2:1:1 ratio for left:center:right, with the cumulative left+center:right ratio of 3:1.

It's true that with our system being what it is, when Obama wants to pass legislation, he has to govern with the Senate as it is. Though if the will of the people matters to you even a little bit, a person might indeed wonder why the media don't put more pressure on Senate Republicans to respect the clear will of the public and legislate more from the left.

But ...

This is a center right country. This is a center right country. This is a center right country. Because what I tell you three times is true, as they say.

It is important that we wrestle with these questions consciously and openly -- before the greening of the world's economies proceeds irretrievably along the same lines as the unjust, unequal, gray economy. There is no racist governor standing in the warehouse door, blocking solar-company CEOs from hiring urban youth. There are no white-hooded hoodlums insisting that health-food stores charge prices for healthy food that low-income parents could never afford. On the other hand, there is no Bull Connor preventing African Americans, Asians, Native Americans, Middle Easterners, or Latinos from joining the movement to reverse climate change. The barriers separating us from each other are wafer thin -- and largely of our own making.

The Green Collar Economy, Van Jones

- When will these tasteless abstinence fetishists learn to stop creeping everybody out with ostentatious displays of their deviant lifestyle? I've known plenty of people in the BDSM community who were more polite about only discussing their kink with interested parties.

- Sex isn't all about the boy parts.

- It's apparently breaking news to people who aren't liberal that Obama isn't very liberal ... as many people who were liberal were saying all along.

- The disadvantages of an elite education.

- You know how city governments compete for big conferences to boost hotel booking rates, as well as tourist income at local restaurants and retail establishments? When those conferences have international attendees, visa foot-dragging may start costing the US conference events.

- Who could ever have predicted that ideologically satisfying (to someone) but purely cosmetic attempts to solve problems would a) not work and b) in fact make them worse? You can't solve bigotry with firearms, you can't protect the sanctity of the electoral process by excluding more voters, and you can't solve airport security by forcing everyone to throw away their hand lotion and shuffle around in their sock feet in public.

- Across much of the mid-Atlantic, Northeast and Upper Midwest, there are no acorns this year. Holy frakking bleep.

- Pakistan not source of all bad behavior in Indian subcontinent.

- Jim Jones, Obama's new national security adviser has a truly disastrous energy policy outlook, courtesy his wankerrific associates at the human habitat-hating Chamber of Commerce. The CoC, if you weren't aware, seems to be of the discredited opinion that human beings can continue having an economy after completely destroying the habitat that provides their life support.

Now you, what's on your minds?

discuss...

Last time I checked, 41% was a failing grade. Not so in the Senate it would appear. No, now that Chambliss has won, apparently having just 41 votes in the Senate is REALLY great news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats, especially President-elect Barack Obama.

On AC360 earlier David Gergen declared:

I think this actually puts a lot more pressure on Barack Obama to govern much more from the center and not from the left. He is going to need Republicans now, he is going to need a bipartisan approach...

Right, a 41 vote minority should by all means have Barack Obama shaking in his boots. I wonder if Gergen said something similar about Republicans on Nov. 4th, perhaps something like...

I think the fact that Barack Obama won 53% of the vote tonight and that Democrats will have won at least 7 more seats in the Senate and 20 more seats in the House puts a lot more pressure on Republicans to govern much more from the center and not from the right.

Oh, he didn't? Ya don't say...

Gergen's refusal to put the burden on the Republicans to be cooperative and "centrist" rather than the Democrats is really a symptom of the persistent beltway "center right nation" conventional wisdom, which always puts the burden on Democrats to be the centrist ones since the Republican Party, so goes the logic, is where the people already are. Was there any greater evidence that the Democratic Party is where the people are than the results on November 4th?

Barack Obama has fed into this narrative, of course, by insisting on being the one who's cooperative and above the fray and never punishing Republicans or one pesky former Democrat in particular for being partisan obstructors. But in fact, the burden should be placed squarely on the shoulders of Republicans in Congress to move toward the center where, let's face it, Barack Obama already is. That's not a slam on Barack Obama, it's merely an acknowledgment of the reality that his agenda, which is largely a progressive agenda, is a mainstream agenda and it's the Republicans who need to move leftward toward the rest of us.

"For a bunch of small-government Republicans," one former denizen of the White House who has now stepped back inside for the first time in eight years, "these guys built a hell of an empire."

The political archaeologists in this case being former Clinton staffers returning to survey their once and future home only to discover an infrastructure of government several magnitudes greater even as the Republic which it governed lays in waste. The former Clinton staffers soon to be Obama staffers are dumbstruck by size of the enterprise they are about to inherit but I say wait until they uncover the not yet fully visible damage that the Republicans have wrought. I am sure as the Democrats regain the levers of power and bring to the full light of day all that has transpired since January 20, 2001, we will find ourselves in shock and disbelief if not outraged, perplexed and angered. Who knows the full extent of the damage that the Bush Administration has wrought?

Last month California Congressman Xavier Becerra was elected as the fifth highest Ranking Democrat in the House, the Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman. None of the four Democrats out-ranking him in the chamber is under the age of 60, meaning that Becerra, age 50, could have a real shot at the Speakership down the road if he sticks around long enough.

But according to CQ Politics, Barack Obama wants Becerra, the highest ranking Hispanic in the House, to serve as U.S. Trade Representative in his administration, and Becerra may be on the brink of accepting the position.

Rep. Xavier Becerra , D-Calif., has been offered the post of U.S. Trade Representative in the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama , according to Democratic sources.

Becerra is weighing whether to give up his House seniority and newly won spot as vice chairman of the Democratic Caucus to take the Cabinet-level post, a source close to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus said. But another Democratic source said the job has been offered and accepted.

Jonathan Martin similarly reports that Becerra "was not inclined to accept the post but that he's likely to change his mind after direct lobbying from the pres-elect."

This is clearly a tough decision for Becerra. When the President asks you to serve, it's difficult to say "no." What's more, while USTR isn't the most prominent position in an administration, it could be a stepping stone for bigger things to come. Rob Portman, the last USTR, currently serves later served as the head of the Office of Management and Budget. Robert Zoellick, Portman's predecessor, is now the President of the World Bank. Mickey Kantor, Bill Clinton's first USTR, was subsequently appointed to be Commerce Secretary. The list goes on.

Yet on the other hand, Becerra could have a real shot at becoming the first ever Hispanic Speaker of the House. His path to the Speakership would be far from sure. While Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn are 69 and 68, respectively, and thus might not be likely heirs to Nancy Pelosi when she leaves the Speakership down the road, Caucus Chairman John Larson is a bit younger at 60 and thus might be a logical successor to Pelosi, or Hoyer or Clyburn as her immediate successor. Additionally, while Chris Van Hollen, 49, ranks below Becerra in the leadership, his tenure as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has earned him the respect of the caucus, thus giving him some strength in a potential run for Speaker in the future. That all said, while Becerra doesn't have a sure shot at the Speakership in the future, he does have a real one. And it's difficult to turn down a genuine opportunity to be Speaker. But Rahm Emanuel did it -- and so too might Becerra.

97% reporting

Saxby Chambliss 57.4%
Jim Martin 42.6%

Update [2008-12-2 19:30:11 by Todd Beeton]:While it's probably way too early to have enough data to determine trends, it is disturbing how consistently Chambliss appears to be over-performing his Nov. 4th vote percentages in every county for which some votes have been reported today. You can compare CNN's Nov. 4th map & Dec. 2nd map.

Update [2008-12-2 20:16:5 by Todd Beeton]:Nate says what I'm thinking:

I haven't found a single county with a significant percentage of the vote in where Chambliss isn't performing better than he did on November 4. This looks like a 14 point win for him or something.

Update [2008-12-2 20:27:8 by Todd Beeton]:It's worth noting that Martin stronghold Fulton County has not yet begun to report and DeKalb County has just begun to report. If Martin is going to catch up, this is where he'll do it.

Update [2008-12-2 20:55:34 by Todd Beeton]:Sean Quinn:

The gap is 250,000 votes with over 1,000,000 in. We know that Fulton County hasn't reported the heavy African-American precincts yet, but I'm also surprised the race hasn't been called yet.

Update [2008-12-2 21:2:37 by Todd Beeton]:NBC has called it for Chambliss. Sigh. So much for 60.

----------------------------------------------------

Polls in Georgia closed at 7pm Eastern.

Results will be coming in HERE.

Some last minute potentially good news from Sean Quinn on the ground:

We're hearing that there are lines in Athens (home of the University of Georgia) in Democratic counties. We also hear DeKalb has been doing particularly well. The staff here is dialing voters in the last-minute push.

Polls in Georgia close at 7PM Eastern and so far, as expected, turn out appears to be rather light.

Polling stations across Georgia reported low to moderate voter turnout. At the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

While conventional wisdom is that lower turnout favors Chambliss, there's just no way to really gauge whose supporters are coming out to vote today. As Matt Towery, CEO of Insider/Advantage, whose final poll showed Chambliss up 4, put it:

"The race will turn on whether the tradition of Republicans returning to the polls in greater numbers than Democrats in runoff elections will prevail, or whether the almost 1 million automated phone calls by Barack Obama to African-American and longtime Democratic voters will somehow motivate Democrats to return to the polls."

Martin's organizational advantage extends beyond robo-calls from the President-elect. The campaign's GOTV effort has way outstripped anything Chambliss has going for him.

Matt Canter, a spokesman for Mr. Martin, said the campaign had 3,200 people knocking on doors and 3,000 others making phone calls to likely Democratic voters.

Michelle Grasso, a spokeswoman for Mr. Chambliss, said the Republicans were relying largely on e-mail and telephone messages to remind voters of the election. The Chambliss campaign has sent two messages a day to supporters for the past four weeks and will continue to contact voters today, she said.

Sean Quinn has more:

Yesterday we learned that the Martin contact rate during GOTV has been impressively high, with up to 1,000 contacts for 1,500 attempts. According to that source, who knows numbers from working through previous Georgia Democratic voter files, this is just a stunning improvement. What those numbers imply is that the influx of organization will allow for the efficient channeling of volunteer dials and knocks. Where labor fills in, the campaign knows who and where the voters are. Unlike the Obama emphasis on early voting, the Martin campaign did not do a gigantic absentee push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout.

As of last night, according to Martin spokesman Matt Canter, 2,500 volunteers had signed up for the online neighbor-to-neighbor phonebanking tool. Word is that this number has been smashed, beginning early this morning. In addition to and separate from the online phonebanking volunteers (from anywhere), 3,200 on-ground volunteers have deployed around the state for Runoff Day knocking and calling.

So, how many points is organization worth exactly and are Martin's contacts delivering votes more reliably than Chambliss's? We'll begin to get an idea when polls close in 45 minutes.

Update [2008-12-2 18:18:38 by Todd Beeton]:Per Breaking Blue, Senate Guru has a breakdown of the top Georgia counties to watch as results begin to pour in.