Geez, man ... no need to search for that barely-gray cloud in the hugely blue sky!  This thing is over.  The only mystery is the margin.  Only a Bin Laden tape could change anything, and I'm not convinced it would.  

Let's shoot for 380 EVs!

It's not over until it's over.

"Unfortunately, election day isn't today, and these tracking polls are more reflective of the current state of the race"

Hey Jonathan, dont worry, Obama will win in the end.  I'm predicting 52-47.

To me the issue is not that BO is above 50%, though that is huge, the issue is McCain is stuck at 40% and he would have to really shake up the race to get anywhere near 48 or 49%.

david

This is very worrieome. Why can't Obama win over 40% of the country?

She'll apparently just fly into Huntington and then cross over the river to Ohio and actually take a bus tour through Hillary country (the new Ohio poll shows Obama actually leading in SE Ohio though they were very few respondents).

http://sundaygazettemail.com/News/200810 100564

Were our folks just ginning up this story?  The article that claims this was happening didn't indicate any sources and McCain never cited the tour on his website.

If so, we should just start dropping rumors on how they are sending Palin to Kentucky next to defend the state.....

I think you have it backwards actually. Look at what happened, Obama was mostly close with McCain the entire time for various reasons. After clinching the Nomination, after his Convention, after each debate so far, he's gotten a bump for a period of time (7-10 days I think) but then his numbers start to sink again as McCain continues a wild anything-goes attack on him. I call these "Visible Obama-win Events" or VOWEs. If you look at the tracking poll numbers between VOWEs you'll see that he begins to trend down after a certain time. If this time goes long enough with a NEW VOWE he will eventually return to his 3-5 point lead against McCain. It's been masked because the debates have all been in succeeding weeks so he's gotten bump after bump and there is one more to go. But if you look at the trend he starts trickling down slowly about 5-6 days later. It seems to be taking a little longer each time. But after if is nothing for the last 15 days or so of the election so Obama will return to parity.

There are however two things I see here:

1) I suspect each bump moves Obama's ceiling a little higher, i.e. from 46>46.5 >47.25 etc. so the more "events" there are, the higher he will stay though his lead will increase by small increments and this is why it is taking a little longer for him to trend down each time, like slowly rising water.

2) I've heard rumors that Obama is buying a 30 minute block of TV time on almost every single station he can find for the Wed. before the election. If I'm right his plan is to create on his own, a final VOWE placed specifically so that the bounce his time to register and NOT to trend down very much before the time of the vote to maximize his hard support and give him enough soft support come the day to win big(ger).

It's not a bad strategy, but if Bush attacks Iran or allows Israel to do so before the election all bets are off.

We still have a very long 3 weeks guys.  I am doing everything I can think of to get Obama elected.  I might even travel to New Mexico since Texas is still going to be red.

That said, if Obama is elected, it will prove that American Democracy works.  To have an African American with the middle name "Hussein" win in a landslide would resurrect my belief in this country's ability to overcome past mistakes, i.e. reelecting George W. Bush.