Counting Blessings

This diary at DailyKos from a woman who got laid off along with 2/3 of her company yesterday is going to become increasingly regular news. For all that I've been swimming in the schadenfreude at watching the banks collapse and multimillionaire CEOs humbled, mass layoffs of ordinary people like this, as well as the evaporation of retirement savings for people unlucky enough to be retiring in a downturn, were inevitable and they give me no joy.

I didn't relish that end of things when, at the end of the dotcom bubble, my Silicon Valley firm essentially shut down completely. The product and one tech support guy were sold to another company and the rest of us were let go. (I'm not sure I should be kidding about their selling the tech support guy. I heard earlier this year that he still works with the remnants of the product as it exists today.) It took quite a while to find another job and my income has yet to recover its 2001 peak.

Not that this empathizing will make you feel better if you got laid off recently. Only another job is really going to help with that and I wish you good fortune. I'm just saying that I snark out of bitterness, as opposed to a glibertarian lack of concern.

But seriously, Pets.com? AOL being worth more than Time-Warner? The business climate in 2001 was a fantasyland, a delusion. It couldn't have gone on like that and (in theory predictably, though no one wanted to listen to the people who did predict it) it didn't.

All the ordinary people who'd built their dreams on the jobs that couldn't last, all of us took a bath. And how were we supposed to know any different? The media and business press were unctously lapping up quotes from tech CEOs, idolizing their lifestyles, luxuriating in E-Trade advertising dollars, and crowing about how business had changed forever. Ha.

It could have been worse, though. We might have lived in a developing country run under the iron thumb of the International Monetary Fund; that was something to be thankful for then, and something to be thankful for still today.

In fact, both the IMF and World Bank are now singing a different tune about the proper response to financial meltdowns, talking about the need for more government oversight, saying that African countries who've refused to integrate with world financial markets will be hurt the least. A stunning admission of reality on their part. Robert Zoellick of the World Bank is quoted in that article describing the current crisis as having "confused" people about free market principles, but countries subject to IMF riots over the years haven't been even remotely confused about the rules of global finance: whatever benefits the big, developed nations is good, period.

Hence we've had trade protectionism for the US and its allies, paired with the merciless extraction of capital and raw materials from developing nations. In fact, hop below the fold with me and let's step through the standard 4 1/2 step IMF crisis recovery plan that will never be fully implemented in the US on account of how no one wants torch-bearing mobs burning stuff down in America del Norte.

Joseph Stiglitz, former chief economist of the World Bank, courtesy of Greg Palast, will now walk you through what the IMF and World Bank wouldn't dare recommend for the US and Europe, what's quoted and in bold below is from the article linked in this paragraph. And I'd like to clarify what I mean by "recommend;" when you're a developing nation in desperate need of a loan from the international markets to bail your economy out of a hole, you follow these recommendations or no one, no one, loans you money. To it, then ...

"Step One is privatisation."

Which is to say, exactly the opposite of what's happening in the States and Europe right now. Not the government stepping in to save troubled financial institutions by purchasing ownership shares, but the sell-off of state-run utilities to foreign or domestic investors at fire sale prices.

"Step Two is capital market liberalisation."

As Stiglitz explains, the lifting of restraints on all capital market transactions. No stopping of practices like short selling. No restriction on the withdrawal of foreign investment, often precipitous. And as Palast goes on to explain, "to seduce speculators into returning a nation's own capital funds, the IMF demands these nations raise interest rates to 30%, 50% and 80%."

Which is to say, basic interest rates. At this point, no one who isn't either filthy rich or a foreign investor can afford to participate in an economic transaction involving credit. Weimar Republic-style inflation, where wheelbarrows of cash can barely feed a family, may occur.

"At this point, according to Stiglitz, the IMF drags the gasping nation to Step Three: market-based pricing - a fancy term for raising prices on food, water and cooking gas."

The privatization of utilities in developing nations followed by the lifting of rate restrictions and account servicing requirements has routinely resulted in rates for basic necessities like water and electricity going up in hard times. Many of a society's poorest people would therefore be cut off from these services, and expansion of what we in the US consider to be basic services into undersupplied communities would come to a crashing halt.

Here, our government is free to consider helping the poorest ratepayers, people who would be most grimly affected. They are free to insist that electric companies, even if they are private, have to give you a few months to get your bills together before they can cut you off. They can forbid shutoffs during extreme weather. Not so, a nation following the IMF's dictates.

"This leads, predictably, to Step-Three-and-a-Half: what Stiglitz calls 'the IMF riot'."

Consider a low-income community in the US where all federal assistance for winter heating oil has been shut off, there are no Food Stamps anymore, there are no free public clinics or health services anymore, rates for all utilities have gone up, and public schools have been forced to charge fees for all students.

It would be, to quote Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman from "Good Omens," a picnic: "hot, nasty, and eventually given over to the ants."

As noted in Palast's article, and do read the whole thing, public revolts against the destruction of their livelihoods and futures happen like clockwork. They're inevitable. People can only take so much.

"Now we arrive at Step Four: free trade."

Translation: no more protections for agriculture, manufacturing, or any other domestic industry, and no tariffs on any foreign goods - even if they come from countries that are deliberately selling subsidized goods below production costs.

Somewhere in here, any labor protections are also likely to be jettisoned. The only important thing is attracting foreign capital, which hates uppity factory workers who want to work less than 10 hours a day and get through their working life unmaimed.

This inevitably destroys the quality of life of whatever small farmers and craft producers have managed to hang on through all of this, and often does severe damage to any nascent manufacturing industry that the country has managed to develop. If you had a budding middle class, well, screw them. Unless the main commodity you sell is oil, your doom is now to sell unfinished, raw commodities at wholesale and purchase finished products at international retail.

Good luck rebuilding after all that, and thanks for playing.

Here At Home

With balanced budget amendments passed in various states and budget shortfalls are now pushing, for example, Virginia to cut hundreds of jobs and Maryland to enact forcible furloughs, there will probably be cuts to essential support services. These states are often having to cut education funding.

The chances that the federal government won't do what it can to help? Zilch.

When it comes to talking about Americans, it's obvious that cutting poverty assistance and education funding, making it more difficult for people to hold onto homes and small businesses, will make this downturn even harder to recover from. We know this, it's obvious. It's becoming political suicide to suggest otherwise.

But though we're hurting now, and all our future prospects probably just got a whole lot dimmer, let's insist that these lessons carry over into our international policy from now on.

The World Bank and IMF don't act as independent entities, but as extensions of US and European policy goals. They break open recalcitrant markets for our investors, humble poorer governments until they can't dare resist the wishes of wealthier nations, impoverish millions of people for the benefit of international capital markets, and look the other way when corrupt dictators take out loans their countries can never pay back and then skim off the top for personal enrichment before leaving town. They have done it repeatedly, relentlessly.

I'm glad that these policies won't be enacted here, in the country I call home. But I also hope they'll never be forced on anyone again, especially now that we can see what the IMF and World Bank really think of them: they aren't good enough for the United States.



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Re: Counting Blessings (2.00 / 2)

Though I have lost nothing, because I was too cowardly to get back into stocks after 9/11, there are many, many, retired people who depend almost entirely on their stocks to supplement their pensions, social security, etc.  Some cannot put their stocks in conservative investments because these days that does not bring near enough income to survive on either. There is no type of investments that produce anything much at all.  They are living on the edge, and now the edge just fell off.  What is going to become of them?  How will they make it through the rest of the year?  That is a very scary thing for any of us to imagine, and they are probably the least able to do something about it.


by Scotch on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 08:35:09 PM EST

Re: Counting Blessings (2.00 / 2)

Not cowardly at all; more like intuitively wise. On CNN last week, Suzy Ormann said that withdrawing from the stock market is the prudent thing to do for anyone approaching or at retirement age. She also mentioned that even though she's not yet considering retirement, she keeps 95% of her assets in municipal bonds, unwilling to risk any more than 5% on anything else. Personally, I swear by what Suzy says.


by phoenixdreamz on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 07:57:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

my friend's husband just got laid off (none / 0)

so her kids are currently lacking health insurance. I asked if she could get them on HAWK-I (which is the Iowa SCHIP program), and she had already called about that. They are eligible but can't be added in the middle of the month.

So she and her husband are just praying that the kids don't develop any medical problems before November 1.

They looked into a private health insurance plan, but because their son needed a nebulizer for some cold more than a year ago, he wouldn't have been covered for any respiratory illness for four years.


See if Saxby Chambliss is helping you.
by desmoinesdem on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:21:22 PM EST

Re: Counting Blessings (2.00 / 1)

Thank you for a wonderful post.  Yes, we in India (and other developing countries) have a strong distrust of the IMF, and hope that we won't get pushed so strongly on "free markets".

But the bad news is that we have already adopted most or all of those policies ("liberalization" is the term in India), and while it has increased the GDP (because we were at the right point in the developmental curve for it), it is greatly increasing the have / have-not divide.  Lots of productive people (farmers, weavers) starving.

We all desperately need a 21st century economic system - something beyond capitalism and communism.  One that is centred around community well-being and self-sufficiency, with trade and mass production as means towards that goal, rather than as means towards "maximum GDP".


by swaminathan on Sat Oct 11, 2008 at 10:56:06 PM EST

Re: Counting Blessings (2.00 / 1)

Yes, well. It's a dirty job but somebody has to do it, so I will make a partial defense of the IMF prescriptions. I have lived for months at a time in Ghana for five years now, so I have seen some of the other side.

Privatized utilities vs. public utilities. The recent record, one example or three. According the standard statistics, Ghana had about 300,000 telephone lines in 2000, landlines operated by Ghana Telecom, a govt-owned entity. But the donor nations insisted that the cell phone market had to be open to competition. When I first visited the country in 2003, making a call home was an ordeal. Citizens stood in lines to use the pay phones outside the public buildings, especially the headquarters of Ghana Telecom. Sometimes the pay phones worked, other times not. In 2004 my guide and friend was begging me to guy him a cell phone, which I did, and he signed up with a private cell phone operator. He got a six digit number. In 2005 his number got a 4 added to it, changing it to a seven digit number BECAUSE that cell phone operator (one of four competing in the market) had about used up the 999,999 numbers possible with six digits combined. By 2008 Ghana had over 8 million cell phone customers. Rusting arrays of pay phones were being removed; no one uses them any more. And Ghana Telecom had increased the number of landline customers to more than 400,000.

The privately owned cell phone companies, BTW, apparently are based in South Africa and the Middle East. Only this year were the big European telecoms being invited to bid to take over Ghana's mess of a landline operating company.

Ghana Electric. In 2007 the capital city enjoyed rolling blackouts, that the citizens called Lights OFF! Accounts in the papers alleged that the looming shortage of electric power had little to do with the officially blamed shortage of rain and therefore hydroelectric supply, and more to the surging demand for juice to power the demand of users adding every more appliances (including cell phone chargers ha ha ha) to the daily demand. But the govt owned power company had not rushed to install new generating capacity to mass produce more electric power, constrained by the govt budget and concerns about potentially growing imports of fuel oil. Instead, the affluent rushed to buy their own home generators to run their wiring in their houses and businesses, polluting the air while importing diesel fuel instead of fuel oil.

Ghana Airways, now Ghana International, largely govt-owned, with a handful of planes and routes, and a lousy reputation. To keep their planes full and losses low, the government restricts competition from foreign airlines which enjoy the advantages like worldwide routes and computerized operations right down to frequent-flyer plans. But for example, Ghana International flies 7 times a week to the US, so American flag carriers (Delta and an outfit called North American Air) can only fly 7 times a week. Their planes are also full. Full like 100% capacity, and priced to what the traffic will bear. Ticket prices to fly NYC-Accra are about the same as ticket NYC-South Africa, thousands of miles farther to fly.

Earlier this year the government spent millions hosting an all-Africa soccer championship, new stadiums, etc. The official line was that the country would benefit from additional tourists as a result of this attraction. Yeah, maybe lots of tourists drove over from Nigeria, a hundred miles away or so. But no additional tourists arrived by air. The planes are always full -- yes, even those of Ghana International. So they were full in the month before the tournament and full the month after the tournament, and no foreign airlines were allowed to increase their number of flights from the US or Europe.

And a more general point: Corruption seems endemic to modern African governments, and socialism corrupts them absolutely. To get a good job with one of the govt owned utilities, you don't need a college degree, much less any competence, you only need a relative in the parliament, in the ruling party controlling parliament, that is.

I don't think the IMF always solves the problems, but I know that the East German model of state  ownership still admired in Ghana never solves the problems.


by Woody on Sun Oct 12, 2008 at 01:22:27 AM EST


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